Canada And EU Are Slip Sliding Away On Vehicle Emissions

Support CleanTechnica’s work through a Substack subscription, on Patreon, or on Stripe. Help us produce all of the high-quality, original content we publish week after week despite the challenges of content-scraping AI, antisocial media, inflation, and other hurdles.

J. Wellington Wimpy, of Popeye comics fame, had a favorite expression. It went like this: “I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a cheeseburger today.” As the Earth gets hotter and hotter, most countries have made commitments to reduce their climate warming emissions by 2030, or 2050, or 2077, or 2100. Their position papers and high level speeches are filled with passionate promises and flowery language, but their actions seldom match their pious protestations.

This week, Canada and the EU both backed away from their existing commitments to reduce motor vehicle emissions. Oh, they still promise to get around to it, just not now, while political turmoil is roiling their economies. The promises will be kept — make no mistake about that — just not now. They need breathing room to attend to the high prices resulting from America’s failed effort to wipe Iran off the map and to address extreme right wing movements who threaten to bring down their governments. There are always plenty of reasons to delay, delay, and delay some more.

Emissions Freeze In Canada

According to Canadian website Electric Autonomy, the government of Canada this week announced a freeze on its vehicle emissions mandates for three years, while promising  to still reach its goal of 75 percent of new car sales to be electric by 2035. That and three loonies will get you a doughnut at Tim Horton’s.

The current standard is 172 grams of greenhouse gas emissions per mile (107 grams/km)  and it will remain at the level now through the end of 2029. Thereafter, God willing and the creek don’t rise, the standard will begin ratcheting down every year until it reaches 74 grams per mile (46 grams/km).

A joint release by prime minister Mark Carney and Ontario premier Doug Ford said, “Maintaining the fleet average performance standard will provide manufacturers with near-term flexibility at a time when the industry is facing trade-related pressures. It will also provide the ability to generate greenhouse gas credits for use in later years, while continuing to improve emissions performance and fuel economy over time.” In addition to the revised emissions timeline, the federal and Ontario governments are investing $2.5 billion over two years to support capital projects by Canadian auto manufacturers.

A Mixed Reaction

Reaction to the new policy has been mixed. Climate activists are disappointed to see any retreat from the emissions standards that were in place, since the new rules will undermine the transition to electric cars. Industries hoped the announcement would bring a sense of direction, clarity, and certainty to the future. In any event, Chinese manufacturers are waiting in the wings, as Canada has opened a door for up to 49,000 Chinese EVs to be imported with only a 6.1 percent tariff.

“[T]he decision to pause any increase in the regulation until model year 2030 puts significantly more pressure on the policy’s later years and could undermine success down the road,” Clean Energy Canada said in a statement. “The unexpected delay will impact the potential benefits of stronger EV uptake, including thousands in fuel cost savings for households and up to $21 billion in charging industry investments. At the same time, Canadian communities will face the increased health costs and impacts from worse air quality.”

Pembina Institute, a British Columbia based clean energy advocacy group, took issue with the new policy, claiming it will make it virtually impossible for Canada to achieve its EV goals. “Earlier this year, the federal government promised stronger vehicle pollution standards starting in 2027, but they are now delaying that to 2029. This makes its goal of 75 per cent EVs by 2035 next to impossible, delaying progress toward giving Canadians more affordable vehicle choices.”

Canadian automakers are quite pleased with the longer timeline the federal government is providing for scaling up EV sales, believing it will help protect Canadian jobs and investments. “We welcome the measures to support Canada’s auto industry through this challenging period,” Brian Kingston, CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, said in a statement.  “Today’s announcement is an important step toward a more predictable, competitive, and achievable regulatory environment needed to protect Canadian auto jobs, production, and investment.

Doug Ford acknowledged the midterm elections in the US, coupled with the approaching halfway point of the worst presidency in history, could be inflection points. Yet they are unlikely to undo the changes already reshaping cross-border trade. “As we stand here today, it’s clear that Canada’s relationship with the United States has changed permanently. No matter what happens in the midterms, no matter who sits in the White House, we’re not going back to the way things were, and we need to plan accordingly,” he said.

Changes For The EU

In Europe, things are infinitely more complex, due to the need to achieve consensus among representatives from multiple political parties and 27 countries. Automakers there are also pleading for more time to transition to electric vehicles. A few weeks ago, France and Germany were able to secure an agreement that backed away somewhat from the EU’s zero emissions by 2035 policy, but that was just part of the process.

Now Germany’s Handelsblatt reports that a consensus achieved by a number of centrist parties would allow the 100 percent reduction target to be lowered to as little as 87.5 percent, provided the manufacturers use at least 7.5 percent green steel to build their vehicles. Sharp eyed readers will note that means the EV sales target will be 95 percent by 2035 rather than 100 percent.

The next step is for the Environment Committee to vote in early November, according to information from the Der Spiegel, with the plenary session likely to take place in December. To push the package through, the EU Parliament must first approve it, followed by the member states in the EU Council. A simple majority is sufficient in the EU Parliament, while a so-called “qualifietd majority” is required in the EU Council. This means the approval of at least 15 countries representing at least 65 percent of the EU population.

Phew! With all that rigmarole needed to set a final policy, it’s a wonder the EU ever gets anything done. the takeaway is that short term concerns so often interfere with long term commitments. No one would suggest that major industries should be forced to go out of business. There are too many people dependent on them for employment for that to happen. But the climate emergency won’t wait.

In the words of Paul Simon, “The nearer your destination, the more you’re slip sliding away.” That’s exactly what’s happening. Regardless of the justifications offered, the Earth can’t wait. There won’t be any industries, or jobs, or customers once the Sixth Extinction event gets going in earnest, which may happen much sooner than anyone expects.